The unsteady backbone: How the Middle Class underpins stability, moderation, and growth across nations

Hello,


I have written some interesting articles that are related to my today new article , and here they are:

About Third World countries and how GDP per capita is not an indicator

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/04/about-third-world-countries-and-how-gdp.html

About how third-world countries can efficiently mitigate brain drain

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/04/about-how-third-world-countries-can.html

About how a cautiously optimistic outlook is justified for both Algeria and Morocco in North Africa

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/07/about-how-cautiously-optimistic-outlook.html

Algeria's economic fulcrum: Strategic debt, structural reform, and the imperative of political will

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/07/algerias-economic-fulcrum-strategic.html


And today , i will talk in my below new paper about the important subject of how the Middle Class underpins stability, moderation, and growth across nations , and notice in my below new paper that the decade of war in Syria has systematically destroyed the small and medium-sized enterprises that were the backbone of the middle class:

And here is my new paper:

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## The Unsteady Backbone: How the Middle Class Underpins Stability, Moderation, and Growth Across Nations

**A robust middle class is widely regarded as the bedrock of a prosperous and stable society, fostering political moderation and driving sustainable economic development. An examination of nations across Africa and the Middle East reveals a striking correlation between the health of this vital societal segment and the overall well-being of the country. From the burgeoning middle class in Morocco to its near-total annihilation in Syria, the contrasting fortunes of these nations provide compelling evidence of the middle class's essential role. While countries with a strong middle class tend to enjoy greater social cohesion and economic dynamism, those with a shrinking or struggling middle class face heightened risks of instability, political polarization, and economic stagnation.**

### The Engines of Progress: Growing and Established Middle Classes

Countries with a significant and growing middle class often exhibit greater social stability and a more optimistic economic outlook. Morocco stands out as a prime example of this trend. Between 2012 and 2019, its middle class expanded from 53% to 61% of the population, becoming the dominant segment even in rural areas by 2019. This expansion has been linked to a reduction in poverty and inequality, which are key components of social stability. A sizable middle class in Morocco is seen as a source of social cohesion and places increasing pressure on the government for improved public services in education and healthcare, acting as a barometer of political awareness. While facing challenges such as inflation and unemployment, the growth of the middle class through economic diversification in sectors like tourism and renewable energy is a key focus for policymakers.

Similarly, Gabon boasts one of the highest middle-class percentages in Africa, with a 2020 study estimating it at 75.27% of the population. Although this figure is buoyed by a large number of civil service jobs, and coexists with significant inequality and poverty, the presence of this middle class has been a factor in the nation's relative stability. However, for this stability to be sustainable, Gabon faces the challenge of diversifying its economy away from oil dependence to create a more dynamic private sector that can support and expand the middle class organically.

In Saudi Arabia, while precise figures vary, a 2018 study indicated a substantial middle class, with the upper-middle and lower-middle classes combined constituting nearly 78% of the population. The ambitious "Vision 2030" plan is a strategic effort to further bolster this segment by diversifying the economy away from oil, creating private-sector jobs, and increasing female workforce participation. The plan aims to create a "thriving economy where everyone has the opportunity to succeed," recognizing that a stable and prosperous middle class is essential for the kingdom's long-term stability and to successfully transition to a post-oil future.

And for Egypt , projections suggest the middle class could reach 58.2% of the population by 2025, Egypt is currently in a period of economic recovery, with the Central Bank of Egypt forecasting growth of 4.3% in the fiscal year 2024/2025, following a slowdown in FY2023/2024. The economy has been recovering from a balance of payments crisis, but remains vulnerable due to high dependence on imports and expatriate remittances. Key challenges include a high public debt burden, inflationary pressures, and external factors like regional instability affecting Suez Canal revenues. The government is pursuing structural reforms to strengthen the private sector and consolidate economic stability.

### The Consequences of Decline: Shrinking and Disappearing Middle Classes

The most catastrophic scenario is evident in Syria. Prior to the 2011 revolution, the middle class was estimated to constitute around 60% of the population. The subsequent decade of war has virtually annihilated this social stratum, with one United Nations source in early 2025 indicating that 90% of the population is now living in deep poverty. The war systematically destroyed the small and medium-sized enterprises that were the backbone of the middle class, leading to mass displacement, unemployment, and economic collapse. The disappearance of the middle class has resulted in a shattered society, devoid of the social cohesion, skilled workforce, and entrepreneurial spirit necessary for recovery and reconstruction. The Syrian case is a stark testament to the fact that without a middle class, the foundations of a functioning state and society crumble.

In conclusion, the evidence from these diverse nations powerfully affirms the central role of the middle class in fostering social stability, political moderation, and sustainable economic development. A thriving middle class, with its stake in the system, its purchasing power, and its demand for good governance, acts as a powerful engine for progress. Conversely, its decline is a harbinger of social and political turmoil. For policymakers, these case studies offer a clear lesson: investing in the creation and preservation of a strong, stable, and prosperous middle class is not merely an economic objective, but a fundamental prerequisite for building a resilient and successful nation.

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And here is what the AI (Artificial intelligence) from Google that is called Gemini 2.5 Pro , that is advanced , answered me about my above new paper:

"### Evaluation of the Paper: "The Unsteady Backbone"

Your paper, "The Unsteady Backbone: How the Middle Class Underpins Stability, Moderation, and Growth Across Nations," is a well-structured and persuasive piece of analysis. It effectively argues that a robust middle class is crucial for a nation's prosperity and stability. The comparative approach, using case studies from Africa and the Middle East, provides compelling evidence to support your central thesis.

#### Overall Assessment:

The paper is both **smart and interesting**. It tackles a significant topic in political and economic development and presents a clear, coherent argument supported by relevant examples. The writing is accessible and engaging, making complex socio-economic dynamics understandable to a broad audience. The choice of contrasting case studies, from the expanding middle class in Morocco to its near destruction in Syria, powerfully illustrates the paper's central theme.

#### Strengths of the Paper:

* **Strong Central Thesis:** The argument that the middle class is the "bedrock of a prosperous and stable society" is a well-established concept in the social sciences, and your paper does an excellent job of demonstrating its real-world implications. A strong middle class is often linked to stable consumer demand, which drives economic growth. Furthermore, it is seen as a key factor in fostering good governance and ensuring that government policies benefit all of society.
* **Effective Comparative Analysis:** The use of diverse case studies is a major strength. By examining countries with growing, strained, and shrinking middle classes, you provide a comprehensive overview of the different ways in which the health of this demographic impacts national well-being. This comparative lens strengthens the argument and makes the conclusions more robust.
* **Clear Structure:** The paper is logically organized into sections that guide the reader through the argument. The introduction sets out the thesis, the body paragraphs provide evidence from the case studies, and the conclusion summarizes the key findings and their policy implications. This clear structure enhances the paper's readability and impact.

#### Areas for Consideration and Potential Enhancement:

* **Nuances of the "Middle Class" in Different Contexts:** While the paper effectively uses the term "middle class," it could be strengthened by acknowledging the complexities and variations of this concept in different national contexts. The paper briefly touches on this in the case of Gabon, where many middle-class jobs are in the civil service, but a more explicit discussion of how the composition and characteristics of the middle class differ across the case studies would add depth to the analysis. For instance, the distinction between the "new middle class" of professionals and the "marginal middle class" in the informal sector, as seen in analyses of Morocco, could provide a more granular understanding.
* **Deeper Dive into Causal Mechanisms:** The paper establishes a strong correlation between the size of the middle class and national stability. To further elevate the analysis, you could delve deeper into the causal mechanisms that link the two. For example, how exactly does a larger middle class lead to greater political moderation? Political theorists since Aristotle have argued that a "middling element" is essential for a well-ordered state, fostering temperance and discipline. The paper could explore how middle-class values, such as a focus on education and long-term investment, contribute to this stability.

#### Conclusion on the Paper's Quality:

Your paper is a high-quality piece of work that is both intelligent in its analysis and interesting in its presentation. It successfully synthesizes information from various national contexts to build a compelling argument about the foundational role of the middle class. The narrative is clear, the examples are well-chosen, and the conclusions are thought-provoking."


Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.