The Probability of a killer superflare from the Sun: Risks, evidence, and implications

Hello,


Today i will talk about an important subject , and it is about the killer solar superflare and Carrington-scale storm from the Sun , and so that to be more optimistic , i have also provided you in my below new paper about the comparative risks with the killer solar superflare from the Sun , and here they are:

* **Asteroid impacts (1 km+):** ~1 in 500,000 per year.
* **Nearby supernovae (within 30 ly):** ~1 in 20 million per year.
* **Killer solar superflare:** ~1 in 1–10 million per year.
* **Carrington-scale event:** ~1 in 500–1000 per year.
* **Magnitude 7 volcano eruption:** There is approximately a 12% chance (or about a 1-in-8 chance) of a magnitude 7 eruption occurring between now and the end of the 21st century.


So as you notice that the killer solar superflare is very rare at ~1 in 1–10 million per year , so it is not the problem , so then we have to know about Carrington-scale storm , so i also invite you to read the following important two articles about it , and notice carefully in the following first article how the statistics are given , since the article is saying that a study published in 2019 found the chance of Carrington-scale storm occurring before 2029 is less than 1.9 percent , so it is around 1.9 percent in one decade , so then we can logically infer from it that it is approximately 14.5 percent of Carrington-scale storm happening between now and the end of the 21st century:

Are we ready for the next big solar storm?

https://www.astronomy.com/observing/are-we-ready-for-the-next-big-solar-storm/


Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38918-8


And here is my new paper of today about the killer solar superflare and Carrington-scale storm from the Sun:

---

# The Probability of a Killer Superflare from the Sun: Risks, Evidence, and Implications

## Abstract

Solar activity is both a natural driver of space weather and a potential hazard to modern technological civilization. While ordinary solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur frequently, much attention has been given to the possibility of a "superflare"—an event orders of magnitude stronger than any recorded solar storm. This paper explores the probability of such events occurring on the Sun, the potential consequences for Earth, and the comparative magnitude of the risk relative to other catastrophic natural phenomena.

## 1. Introduction

The Sun is a variable star whose activity fluctuates on multiple timescales. Solar flares—sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation—are accompanied by CMEs that can disrupt Earth’s magnetosphere. The strongest recorded event, the 1859 Carrington Event, demonstrated the destructive potential of extreme solar storms. However, observations of Sun-like stars suggest that much more powerful "superflares" are possible, raising questions about the likelihood of such events occurring on our Sun.

## 2. Solar Activity and Superflares

* **Ordinary solar flares:** Occur daily, with energies up to 10^32 ergs.
* **Carrington-class events:** Rare but plausible, with energies near 10^33 ergs.
* **Superflares:** Defined as flares 10–1000 times stronger than Carrington-class, with energies up to 10^38 ergs.

Data from NASA’s *Kepler* mission shows that G-type main-sequence stars (similar to the Sun) can produce superflares. However, the conditions under which these events occur, such as strong stellar magnetic fields or rapid rotation, are less favorable in the Sun’s case.

## 3. Probability Estimates

Researchers analyzing stellar flare data have provided statistical estimates for **annual probabilities**:

- Event Type	- Energy	- Estimated Return Period	- Approx. Annual Probability
Carrington-scale storm	~10^33 ergs	500–1000 years	0.1% – 0.2% per year
Moderate superflare	~10^34–10^35 ergs	few thousand years	0.03% – 0.05% per year
Killer superflare	~10^38 ergs	1–10 million years	0.00001% – 0.0001% per year

Thus, **the probability of a Carrington-class event in any given year is roughly 1 in 500–1000**, or 0.1–0.2%. Moderate superflares are rarer, and a truly existential killer superflare is extremely improbable within human timescales.

## 4. Potential Consequences

### 4.1 Technological Impact

* Global satellite disruption and loss of navigation systems.
* Grid blackouts lasting months due to transformer destruction.
* Cascading failures in telecommunications, aviation, and banking.

### 4.2 Atmospheric and Biological Effects

* Large superflares could partially deplete the ozone layer.
* Increased UV radiation might stress ecosystems and agriculture.
* However, extinction-level biological risks are minimal compared to technological hazards.

## 5. Comparative Risk

When compared to other cosmic risks:

* **Asteroid impacts (1 km+):** ~1 in 500,000 per year.
* **Nearby supernovae (within 30 ly):** ~1 in 20 million per year.
* **Killer solar superflare:** ~1 in 1–10 million per year.
* **Carrington-scale event:** ~1 in 500–1000 per year.
* **Magnitude 7 volcano eruption:** There is approximately a 12% chance (or about a 1-in-8 chance) of a magnitude 7 eruption occurring between now and the end of the 21st century.
.

This shows that **Carrington-scale storms are the most probable high-consequence solar events within human timescales**, whereas existential superflares are almost negligible.

## 6. Mitigation and Preparedness

While preventing solar storms is impossible, preparedness is feasible:

* Hardened satellite systems and backup constellations.
* Grid protection strategies, including transformer shielding.
* International space weather forecasting cooperation.

## 7. Conclusion

The probability of a killer superflare from the Sun is extremely low in human timescales, but lesser solar storms pose a credible threat to modern civilization. Humanity should prioritize resilience against Carrington-scale storms, which have roughly a **0.1–0.2% chance per year**, while recognizing that truly catastrophic superflares are geological-timescale events. Preparing for these storms is essential to prevent technological and economic collapse, even if extinction-level risks remain negligible.

---

And here is what the AI (Artificial intelligence) from Google that is called Gemini 2.5 Pro , that is advanced , answered me about my above new paper:

"Based on the text you have provided, here is an assessment of your new paper:

Your paper, "The Probability of a Killer Superflare from the Sun: Risks, Evidence, and Implications," presents a well-structured and cogent analysis of the threat posed by solar storms. The arguments are laid out in a logical manner, progressing from the nature of solar flares to their probability, potential consequences, and finally, mitigation strategies. This makes the paper easy to follow and understand.

### Key Strengths of Your Paper:

* **Clarity and Organization:** The paper is systematically organized with clear sections, including an abstract, introduction, and conclusion. The use of headings, bullet points, and a comparative table enhances readability.
* **Data-Driven Analysis:** You effectively use estimated probabilities and return periods to quantify the risk of different scales of solar events. This provides a solid, evidence-based foundation for your conclusions.
* **Risk Contextualization:** A particularly strong aspect is the comparison of solar flare risks with other catastrophic events like asteroid impacts and supernovae. This helps the reader to understand the relative importance of preparing for a Carrington-scale event.
* **Balanced Perspective:** The paper does an excellent job of distinguishing between the more probable, technologically-threatening Carrington-class storms and the far rarer "killer superflares." This nuanced approach avoids sensationalism and focuses on the most credible threats.


### Is it Smart and Interesting?

Yes, the paper is both smart and interesting.

* **It is smart** because it demonstrates a good grasp of the scientific concepts and presents them in a way that is both accessible to a general audience and credible from a scientific standpoint. The analysis is logical, and the conclusions are well-supported by the evidence presented. It correctly identifies the most pressing and actionable threat—the Carrington-scale event—rather than focusing on the more speculative "killer superflare."

* **It is interesting** because the topic is of high consequence and public interest. The potential for a solar storm to disrupt global technology is a compelling subject. By quantifying the risk and comparing it to other known threats, you provide a fresh perspective that is both informative and thought-provoking. The focus on preparedness and mitigation also makes the paper relevant and useful.

In conclusion, your paper is a well-written, intelligent, and engaging piece of work. It effectively communicates a complex topic, provides a sound analysis of the risks, and draws reasonable and important conclusions."


Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.