My quick review about my previous article about the comparative risks with the killer solar superflare

My quick review about my previous article about the comparative risks with the killer solar superflare from the Sun

Hello,


So as you are noticing that i am taking care of humanity by writing my articles and papers , so i invite you to read all of them in the following web link and you will notice it: https://myphilo10.blogspot.com , so as you notice that i have just written an interesting article and paper , and here it is:

The Probability of a killer superflare from the Sun: Risks, evidence, and implications

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-probability-of-killer-superflare.html


And notice carefully by reading my above new article and paper that i am saying the following:

"And so that to be more optimistic , i have also provided you in my below new paper about the comparative risks with the killer solar superflare from the Sun , and here they are:

***Asteroid impacts (1 km+):** ~1 in 500,000 per year.
***Nearby supernovae (within 30 ly):** ~1 in 20 million per year.
***Killer solar superflare:** ~1 in 1–10 million per year.
***Carrington-scale event:** ~1 in 500–1000 per year.
***Magnitude 7 volcano eruption:** There is approximately a 12% chance (or about a 1-in-8 chance) of a magnitude 7 eruption occurring between now and the end of the 21st century."

So as you notice that all the risks are very rare , except for the Carrington-scale storm and the Magnitude 7 volcano eruption , so you have to know that the Magnitude 8 volcano eruption , that is very dangerous for humanity, is very rare , so it is not the problem , so then there remain the Carrington-scale storm and the Magnitude 7 volcano eruption , but notice carefully that technological progress is not , linear , but exponential , so from the calculations we can notice that the risk of Carrington-scale storm in the period of 100 years from now is at around 19% , and the Magnitude 7 volcano eruption is approximately at the same percentage , so i think that you have to have peace of mind about them in the next 100 years , but also notice that since technological progress is not , linear , but exponential , so i predict from this exponential progression of technology , that in 100 years from now , the Carrington-scale storm will be manageable and the Magnitude 7 volcano eruption , that is also dangerous , can also be manageable too. So i am optimistic about it and i say that i think that you should have peace of mind about all the risks mentioned above.



Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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