Can retreating glaciers awaken dangerous volcanoes? A critical review of Ice-Volcano interactions and eruption potential

Hello,


I have written some interesting articles that are related to my subject of today , and here they are in the following web links, and hope that you will read them carefully:

Assessing near-Earth object impact risk: Size classes, probabilities, and urban exposure

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/12/assessing-near-earth-object-impact-risk.html

The Probability of a killer superflare from the Sun: Risks, evidence, and implications

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-probability-of-killer-superflare.html

My quick review about my previous article about the comparative risks with the killer solar superflare

https://myphilo10.blogspot.com/2025/12/my-quick-review-about-my-previous.html


And for today , here is my below new interesting paper called: "Can Retreating Glaciers Awaken Dangerous Volcanoes? A Critical Review of Ice-Volcano Interactions and Eruption Potential" , so by reading my new paper below , you will notice how it says that we are safe by saying as a conclusion: "Current scientific understanding and geological evidence do **not support the existence of glacier-buried volcanoes capable of *VEI 7 or greater* eruptions in relation to modern deglaciation events**. The hazards posed by such systems are significant on local and regional scales — including explosive eruptions, lahars, and meltwater floods — but they do not constitute a supervolcanic threat to humanity as a whole" , and , of course , notice below how my new paper is analysed and verified and rated by the advanced AI (Artificial intelligence) from Google called Gemini 3.0 Pro , also , i have to explain another important thing: So notice in my new below paper that i am using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) , so when we say VEI 7 , so it is approximately equal to a Magnitude 7 eruption or explosion, so notice carefully that i am using the "technical" name of Magnitude 7 volcano eruption in my first above new article , but you can also use the more scientific name of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7 that means approximately the same , and as a proof , notice in the following article from University of Cambridge that they are using the technical name of Magnitude 7 volcano explosion or eruption , and not the more scientific name of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7 , but you have to know that they both mean approximately the same , so i think you can switch between the two meanings as approximation, so here is the article from University of Cambridge as a proof of what i am saying:

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/risk-of-volcano-catastrophe-a-roll-of-the-dice-say-experts


And here is the table about the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) so that you understand more about the Global impact of it:
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## 1. **VEI and global danger**

The **Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)** measures eruption size:

- VEI	- Volume ejected	- Global impact
0–4	<0.1–1 km^3	Local to regional, negligible global effect
5–6	1–10 km^3	Can disrupt regional climate, minor global cooling
**7**	100–1,000 km^3	Massive eruption, global climate disruption, potential for famine or societal impact
8	>1,000 km^3	True supereruption, catastrophic global effects, could threaten civilization

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And here is my new paper:

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# **Can Retreating Glaciers Awaken Dangerous Volcanoes? A Critical Review of Ice-Volcano Interactions and Eruption Potential**

## **Abstract**

Recent research suggests that the melting of glaciers and ice caps — driven by anthropogenic climate change — may influence volcanic activity by reducing confining pressure on magma systems, potentially increasing eruption frequency and explosivity. However, despite increased activity, there is no current evidence that glacier-covered volcanoes beneath retreating ice possess the volume or eruptive history required for *VEI 7* (Volcanic Explosivity Index 7) or greater eruptions. This paper synthesizes current knowledge on glacial unloading, subglacial volcanism, and volcanic hazard potential, highlighting mechanisms, regional case studies, and geological constraints on eruption magnitude. It concludes that while localized hazards increase, the threat of a supereruption remains negligible.

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## **1. Introduction**

Climate change is rapidly reducing the extent and thickness of glaciers globally. These losses alter the lithostatic pressure exerted on the Earth’s crust, with implications for tectonics and volcanic systems. The possibility that ice retreat could *“wake up”* dormant volcanoes has gathered attention in both scientific and public discourse. The New Atlas article “Are Thawing Glaciers About to Wake Up Dormant Volcanoes Around the Globe?” introduces the idea that glacier retreat could reactivate volcanism beneath ice masses (New Atlas, *n.d.*). This concept is supported by emerging research that examines how deglaciation influences magmatic systems.

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## **2. Mechanisms Linking Glacier Retreat and Volcanic Activity**

### **2.1 Glacier Unloading and Magma Dynamics**

As glaciers melt and ice mass decreases, the reduction in pressure on the crust allows magmatic gases to exsolve more readily and magma to more easily ascend toward the surface. Recent research analyzing six southern Chilean volcanoes indicates that thick ice sheets historically suppressed eruptions, enabling magma reservoirs to develop, and that retreat of these ice sheets coincided with increased eruption frequency and explosivity during the last deglacial period (Moreno-Yaeger et al., presented at Goldschmidt Conference) ([ScienceDaily][1]). Similar phenomena have been observed in Iceland, where retreating ice is associated with changes in volcanic behavior due to decreased lithostatic load and is a subject of ongoing research projects such as ISVOLC aimed at quantifying ice-volcano interactions ([isvolc.is][2]).

### **2.2 Geothermal Heat and Glacier Flow Observations**

Beyond pressure effects, volcano-glacier interactions can manifest in other ways. For example, glaciers located near active volcanic systems often flow faster due to geothermal heating at their bases, which reduces friction and enhances meltwater production — a potential precursor signal for magmatic activity monitoring ([ScienceDaily][3]).

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## **3. Volcanic Hazards Associated with Glacier Retreat**

### **3.1 Increased Explosivity and Frequency**

Studies suggest that glacier retreat can lead not only to a greater frequency of volcanic eruptions but also potentially more explosive ones, as the escape of previously trapped volcanic gases becomes easier with reduced overburden pressure. The thinning of glacial ice is thus hypothesized to contribute to increases in eruption rates and intensities across multiple regions including Antarctica, Russia, North America, and New Zealand, where ice-covered volcanoes are numerous ([Live Science][4]).

### **3.2 Localized Hazards: Floods and Lahars**

Ice-volcano interactions can also generate secondary hazards. Meltwater released during an eruption or through increased geothermal heat can lead to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and lahars, which pose substantial risks to infrastructure and communities near glaciated volcanic slopes. Monitoring proglacial lake development and mass movement hazards is thus increasingly relevant in a warming climate ([NHESS][5]).

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## **4. Can Glacier-Influenced Volcanoes Produce VEI 7 or Greater Eruptions?**

### **4.1 Geological Record and Eruption Magnitudes**

True *VEI 7* or *VEI 8* eruptions, sometimes referred to as supereruptions, require massive magma reservoirs with volumes on the order of hundreds to thousands of cubic kilometers. These events leave extensive geological signatures such as calderas tens of kilometers wide and widespread ignimbrite deposits. To date, there is **no evidence** that the glacier-covered volcanoes examined in current studies possess the eruptive history or capacity for such events.

The global survey of volcanoes shows many glaciated systems exist, but **the magnitude of eruptions documented in the geological record for these volcanoes rarely exceeds VEI 6**, with most eruptions being significantly smaller. While deglaciation may increase activity, it does not *create* the magma volume required for supereruptions.

### **4.2 Geological Constraints on Supervolcanism**

Holocene and late-Pleistocene studies of glaciated volcanic regions have not identified widespread evidence of VEI 7+ eruptions directly linked to deglaciation. Historical records and paleo-tephra studies show that the largest explosive eruptions in deglaciated contexts are generally constrained to much smaller volumes. Thus, although glacial unloading may influence eruption timing and intensity, it is **highly unlikely** that ice retreat will produce eruptions of supereruption scale in these settings.

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## **5. Monitoring and Future Research**

### **5.1 Remote Sensing and Glacier Dynamics**

Advances in remote sensing of glacier flow and deformation provide an indirect metric for magmatic heat and potential unrest. Increasing glacier velocities close to volcanic centers may act as early warning indicators when combined with seismic and gas emission monitoring efforts ([Nature][6]).

### **5.2 Interdisciplinary Projects**

Projects like ISVOLC are explicitly focused on quantifying the impact of ice retreat on volcanic systems by modeling magma plumbing and stress field changes. These collaborative efforts between volcanologists and glaciologists are key to improving hazard assessments in glaciated volcanic regions.

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## **6. Conclusion**

The collapse of glaciers due to climate change has clear implications for the dynamics of subglacial and ice-proximal volcanoes. Evidence indicates that glacier unloading can increase eruption frequency and explosive potential on a regional scale. However, current scientific understanding and geological evidence do **not support the existence of glacier-buried volcanoes capable of *VEI 7 or greater* eruptions in relation to modern deglaciation events**. The hazards posed by such systems are significant on local and regional scales — including explosive eruptions, lahars, and meltwater floods — but they do not constitute a supervolcanic threat to humanity as a whole.

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## **References**

* New Atlas. *Are Thawing Glaciers About to Wake Up Dormant Volcanoes Around the Globe?* (accessed Jan 17 2026).
* European Association of Geochemistry. *Melting glaciers are awakening Earth’s most dangerous volcanoes.* *ScienceDaily*, July 8, 2025. ([ScienceDaily][1])
* University of Birmingham. *Faster flowing glaciers could help predict nearby volcanic activity.* *ScienceDaily*, Nov 14, 2024. ([ScienceDaily][3])
* Wells et al. *Proglacial lake development and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsj kull glacier, southeast Iceland.* *Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.*, 2025. ([NHESS][5])
* Jobling et al. *Proximity to active volcanoes enhances glacier velocity.* *Communications Earth & Environment*, 2024. ([Nature][6])
* Livescience. *Melting glaciers could trigger volcanic eruptions around the globe, study finds.* (2025). ([Live Science][4])
* ISVOLC. *Effects of climate change induced ice retreat on seismic and volcanic activity.* Project info, 2025. ([isvolc.is][2])

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[1]: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/07/250708045654.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Melting glaciers are awakening Earth's most dangerous volcanoes | ScienceDaily"
[2]: https://isvolc.is/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "ISVOLC – Effects of climate change induced Ice retreat on Seismic and Volcanic activity – A clean and modern homepage for ISVOLC (Iceland Subglacial Volcanism), an international research project studying how glacier retreat from climate change affects volcanic and seismic activity in Iceland. The site provides project information, links to data and publications, research news, and partner details."
[3]: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/11/241113123717.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Faster flowing glaciers could help predict nearby volcanic activity | ScienceDaily"
[4]: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanos/melting-glaciers-could-trigger-volcanic-eruptions-around-the-globe-study-finds?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Melting glaciers could trigger volcanic eruptions around the globe, study finds"
[5]: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/1913/2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "NHESS - Proglacial lake development and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsj kull glacier, southeast Iceland"
[6]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01826-5?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Proximity to active volcanoes enhances glacier velocity | Communications Earth & Environment"

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And here is what the AI (Artificial intelligence) from Google called Gemini 3.0 Pro , that is advanced , answered me about my above new paper:

"This is a solid, timely, and well-structured paper. It tackles a sensational topic—climate change and volcanoes—but approaches it with scientific grounding and a balanced perspective, avoiding unnecessary alarmism.

Here is my rating and a detailed critique of the paper.

### **Rating**

* **As a General Science / Science Communication Article:** **A**
* *Reasoning:* It is engaging, clear, and perfectly translates complex geological concepts for a broader audience.
* **As an Undergraduate Academic Paper:** **A-**
* *Reasoning:* The structure and logic are excellent. The grade is slightly lowered only because the references rely heavily on secondary sources (news releases like *ScienceDaily*) rather than the original peer-reviewed journal articles.

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### **Detailed Critique**

#### **1. What Works Well (Strengths)**

* **The "Hook" and Relevance:** The introduction immediately establishes why this matters. Connecting climate change (a hot topic) to volcanic hazards (a high-stakes topic) is an excellent thematic choice.
* **Balanced Conclusion:** You successfully debunk the "Hollywood" fear of a super-eruption (VEI 7+) while validating the *actual* risk (increased local frequency and landslides). This nuance is the mark of good scientific writing.
* **Logical Flow:** The paper moves naturally from *Mechanisms* (how it works) -> *Hazards* (what happens) -> *The Big Question* (VEI 7?) -> *Future Monitoring*. This is a standard and effective scientific narrative structure.
* **Specific Mechanism Explanations:** Section 2.1 explains *unloading* and *decompression* well without getting bogged down in excessive jargon.

#### **2. Areas for Improvement (Constructive Feedback)**

To push this paper to an **A+** academic level, consider the following adjustments:

* **Upgrade Your Citations (Crucial for Academic Writing):**
* *Current:* You cite *ScienceDaily*, *New Atlas*, and *Live Science*. These are "secondary sources"—journalists reporting on science.
* *Improvement:* Cite the *primary* source mentioned in those articles.
* Instead of citing *ScienceDaily* for the "Moreno-Yaeger" study, find the actual abstract from the Goldschmidt Conference.
* Instead of *New Atlas*, cite the specific paper or geologists (e.g., researchers from the University of Leeds or Iceland Met Office).
* **Add Specific Geological Examples:**
* In Section 4.1, you mention "glaciated systems exist." It would be stronger if you named a few specific ones that are being watched but are *not* supervolcanoes.
* *Example:* "Mount Rainier (USA), Katla (Iceland), and Hudson (Chile) are significant glaciated systems, but none possess the magma chamber volume required for a VEI 7 event."
* **Clarify the "VEI 7" Constraint:**
* You argue there is "no evidence" of VEI 7 potential. You might want to briefly mention **Laguna del Maule** (Chile) or **Campi Flegrei** (not glaciated, but a comparison point). Some scientists *do* worry about large rhyolitic systems. You are correct that deglaciation alone likely won't trigger a super-eruption, but clarifying *why* (e.g., "Glacial unloading affects the upper crust, whereas super-eruption magma chambers sit much deeper") would add scientific depth.

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### **Specific Edits for "A+" Status**

If you are submitting this for a formal class, I recommend changing the **References** section to look more like this (swapping the news sites for the journals):

> **Revised Section 2.1 Citation:**
> *Instead of:* "...(Moreno-Yaeger et al., presented at Goldschmidt Conference) ([ScienceDaily][1])."
> *Try:* "Moreno-Yaeger, P., et al. (2025). *Glacial unloading and the reactivation of southern Chilean volcanoes*. Goldschmidt Conference Abstracts."

> **Revised Section 3.2 Citation:**
> *Instead of:* "...([NHESS][5])."
> *Try:* "Wells, G., et al. (2025). Proglacial lake development and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsj kull glacier, southeast Iceland. *Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences*, 25(1913)."

### **Final Verdict**

This is a very strong draft. It answers the prompt ("Can retreating glaciers awaken dangerous volcanoes?") with a definitive, evidence-backed answer ("Yes, but not supervolcanoes"). With a quick polish of the reference list to include more primary academic journals, it is excellent work."


Thank you
Amine Moulay Ramdane.